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Anatomy of the Bear

Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms

By Russell Napier

Hardback £29.99 / $48.99
eBook £26.99 / $36.99
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Anatomy of the Bear

Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms

By Russell Napier

Jacket text

How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end?

There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap – 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 – Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal from either side of the market bottom.

In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging.

By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best provisions for the future.

This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author and a foreword by Merryn Somerset Webb.

About the author

Professor Russell Napier is the author of the Solid Ground investment report and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC (www.eri-c.com). Russell has worked in the investment business for 25 years and has been writing global macro strategy for institutional investors since 1995. Russell is founder and course director of the Practical History of Financial Markets at the Edinburgh Business School. Russell serves on the boards of two listed companies and is a member of the investment advisory committees of three fund management companies. In 2014 he founded the Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library in Edinburgh. Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College, Cambridge, and is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and an Honorary Professor at Heriot-Watt University.

Reviews

“Brilliant…a must-read”

– Merryn Somerset Webb

“I first read the second book on my list when it was published six or seven years ago and it is one of my favourites on investment. Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the great sweep of investment history and, in particular, why markets suddenly decide to stop falling and start rising again.”

– Tom Stevenson, The Daily Telegraph

“an outstanding ‘must-read’ for any student of financial markets”

– Marc Faber, author of Tomorrow’s Gold

“Here’s a cushion for when you hit the bottom.”

– The Financial Times

“this is an outstandingly researched and lucidly written book, and with conclusions that are as important as they are compelling.”

– Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman

“[amongst] the finest minds in Asian finance”

– AsiaMoney

“The best investment-related read of the year [2006].”

– Bob Yerbury, CIO & CEO of Invesco Perpetual

“[one of the] year’s best investment books”

– 2008 Stock Trader’s Almanac

“Keep this book in mind, for one day it will help you make a lot of money! Russell Napier has written a serious book for serious, patient investors.”

– Hugh Sloane, Sloane Robinson LLP

“Napier’s cogent, lucid explanation of the similarities and differences between historic financial declines makes this book an essential addition to the education of serious equity investors.”

– Bill Strong, Equinox Partners and Kuroto Fund

“If you want to make serious money you need to invest when others will not. Russell Napier has done all investors a service by providing a comprehensive examination of exactly these periods.”

– Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Partners

“offers essential advice on how investors can determine what’s really going on. Russell Napier’s book is an excellent guide”

– Financial Sense (Yiannis G. Mostrous)

“an incredible resource for anyone wanting to learn from lessons of the past”

– Jeff White, President, The Stock Bandit

“An accessible yet thorough examination of bear markets for the investor or trader which provides valuable information on the history of market bottoms.”

– Geoffrey H. Gannon / Steven Rosales, Value Blog Review

Praise for earlier editions

Media coverage

From Financial Times:

“Next up, valuations. Can you really argue that today’s markets are not expensive? Actually, you can. Russell Napier, author of Anatomy of the Bear, the definitive book on market bottoms, reckons that equities in the US have since 1881 only twice been as expensive as they are now.”

Read More…

From By Biagio Campo:

The Federation Budget reduction after the Second World War – As Written by Russell Napier in the beautiful “Anatomy of the Bear”, published by Harriman House reveals: “Since the Pearl Harbour attack on the United States Victory Day on Japan, the Fed’s credit rose from $ 2.3 billion to $ 22.9 billion, about six times… Read more »

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From Italian version of Traders' Magazine:

Starting with the traditional indicators on the evaluation of markets, the book analyzes the signals that can be caught before a fix or an uptrend. The author believes it is essential in the current context to perform an analysis on the possible risks of inflation and deflation to identify future market cycles. A book full… Read more »

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From Fidelity :

One of my daughter’s favourite books so far in her short life has been “We’re going on a bear hunt”, a tale of how an incredibly irresponsible parent leads his family across treacherous deep rivers, through snowstorms and swamps in search of a bear, of whom part of the repetition so loved by toddlers is… Read more »

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From Financial Adviser:

In our world of fractional reserve banking, the money we use for transactions is only created when commercial banks lend money and, through the true alchemy of finance, thus create bank deposits. It is those bank deposits with which we purchase goods and assets and not the bank reserves created by central banks. As commercial… Read more »

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From ValueWalk:

By Brenda Jubin of Reading The Markets Described as ?a cult classic in the investment community,? Russell Napier?s Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street?s Four Great Bottoms, first published in 2005, is now in its fourth edition, with a new foreword and preface (Harriman House, 2016). Napier remains a bear. He believes that… Read more »

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From The Telegraph:

Financial historian Russell Napier gives his take on how to spot the bottom of a bear market Not all bear markets are created equal. Some matter and some do not. The technical definition of a bear market, a 20pc decline in the share index, can be of little importance if it does no long-term damage… Read more »

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From IG Trading / New.Markets TV:

VIDEO: The current bear market has a while to run, argues Russell Napier, Author of ‘Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s four great bottoms’. Look at cash, look at gold, and wait for stocks to become cheap again, he says.

Read More…

From World Finance :

VIDEO: The cyclical nature of financial markets gives confidence to analysts. We all know when we hit bear territory it’ll only last so long before we start seeing bullish sentiments start to filter through. The question is when? World Finance spoke with Russell Napier, a financial archaeologist, who analysed Wall Street Journal articles two months… Read more »

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From ValueWalk:

Anatomy Of The Bear: Interview With Russell Napier Russell Napier?s critically acclaimed Anatomy Of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street?s Four Great Bottoms returned with a brand new edition earlier this year. The new (fourth) edition of Anatomy Of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street?s Four Great Bottoms includes an all-new extended preface from the… Read more »

Read More…

Contents

Foreword by Merryn Somerset Web
Preface to the New Edition
Introduction

Part I August 1921

The road to August 1921
The course of the Dow - 1896-1921
Living with the Fed - A whole new ball game (I)
Structure of the market in 1921
The stock market in 1921
The bond market in 1921
At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1921
Good news and the bear
Price stability & the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bear
Bonds and the bear

Part II July 1932

The road to July 1932
The course of the Dow - 1921-29
Living with the Fed - A whole new ball game (II)
The course of the Dow - 1929-32
Structure of the market in 1932
The stock market in 1932
The bond market in 1932
At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1932
Good news and the bear
Price stability and the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bear
Bonds and the bear
Roosevelt and the bear

Part III June 1949

The road to June 1949
The course of the Dow - 1932-37
The course of the Dow - 1937-42
The course of the Dow - 1942-46
The course of the Dow - 1946-49
Structure of the market in 1949
The stock market in 1949
The bond market in 1949
At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1949
Good news and the bear
Price stability and the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bear
Bonds and the bear

Part IV August 1982
The road to August 1982
The course of the Dow - 1949-68
The course of the Dow - 1968-82
Structure of the market in 1982
The stock market in 1982
The bond market in 1982
At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1982
Good news and the bear
Price stability and the bear
Liquidity and the bear
The bulls and the bears
Bonds and the bear

Conclusions
- Strategic
- Tactical
- Then and now

Epilogue: Russell Napier, 2007

Bibliography

Table of figures
Acknowledgements



Published: 18/01/2016
Edition: 4th
Pages: 336
Formats: hardback - ISBN 9780857195227
ebook - ISBN 9780857195234
Media enquiries

If you’d like to get in touch with the author for interview or comment, or you’d like a review copy of this book, please contact us at pr@harriman-house.com or call +44 (0)1730 233870.

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