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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007

By Kerry Balenthiran

Paperback £19.99 / $32.99
eBook £17.99 / $21.99
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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007

By Kerry Balenthiran

Jacket text

How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market?

The answers to the above questions are critical to forming an appropriate investment strategy to plan for the future. The difference between anticipating the end of a secular (or cyclical) bull market and reacting to the significant crash that follows will have a big impact on anyone’s investment returns and retirement plans.

This book is concerned with cycles. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won’t necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market.

Kerry Balenthiran has studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years. He has also extrapolated the cycle forwards to provide investors with a market roadmap stretching out to 2053. He describes this in detail and outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle.

Whether you are an investment professional or private investor, this book provides a fascinating insight into the cyclical nature of the stock market and enables you to ensure that you have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.

About the author

Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.

Reviews

“An excellent book”

– MoneyMaker magazine

“Well researched and a good read…a great first book and more importantly could be an excellent anchor for what follows”

– Capitalsynthesis

“Kerry Balenthiran is a brilliant cycles analyst”

– Dominic Picarda, Investors Chronicle

“The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle is a relatively slight book because it contains so few wasted words. I enjoyed the brief tours of cycle theory and stock market history and take some comfort from the conclusions Kerry Balenthiran draws.”

– Richard Beddard, Interactive Investor

“Instructional as well as inspirational”

– Dividend Income Investor

“All in all, I think the book does a good job at laying out some well known economic cycles, and presents an interesting hypothesis with an elegant pattern that tries to connect them.”

– Danny Van den Berghe, Lunatic Trader

Media coverage

From The Stock Trader's Almanac 2015:

The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 200, Kerry Balenthiran, Harriman House, $32.99. This British-chartered accountant with a maths and engineering background has a knack for grasping the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts. Balenthiran studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a… Read more »

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From The Daily Telegraph:

If Kerry Balenthiran is to be believed, the world could enter a major bull market that will run until 2035 I?m a great fan of short investment books on the grounds that, while investing is not easy, its underlying principles are simple. Kerry Balenthiran?s The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle certainly meets the brevity test… Read more »

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From Your Trading Edge Magazine:

Author Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical… Read more »

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From MoneyMaker Magazine:

Boom and bust occurs much more frequently than many imagine and by studying historic stock market cycles we can learn a lot about their likely duration and also what to expect along the way. A cycle doesn?t mean that the same exact thing will happen over and over again. A cycle is a sequence of… Read more »

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From Traders' Magazine:

With major equity markets either at, or close to, all time highs, there is a temptation to think that the recent turmoil is behind us and that we are once again in the midst of a bull market in stocks. In a fascinating new book ? ?The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics… Read more »

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From Pensions World:

Everyone is familiar with the cycle of the seasons, but stock markets are cyclical too. This book?s subtitle is “connecting the panics of 1929, 1987, 2007”, and researches key questions such as: When does a bear market end? Was the 2009 stock market low at the end of the bear market? When does a new… Read more »

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From Interactive Investor:

Mathematician Kerry Balenthiran says a 17.6 year bear market is entering its final phase. It will be followed by a 17.6 year bull market. Despite its precision Kerry Balenthiran is not the first to propose a 17.6 year stock market cycle. He’s not even the second. But he’s confirmed cycles identified by other analysts and… Read more »

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From Dividend Income Investor :

With the FTSE100 index heading for 6500 again are we slowly but surely heading for a massive fall? With two previous major turning points at 6951 (30 December 2000) and 6751 (18 June 2007) will we be seeing a major downturn later this year? Before we consider whether a substantial drop in the FTSE100 index… Read more »

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From Seeking Alpha:

Kerry Balenthiran’s ‘The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007’ (Harriman House, 2013) is a difficult book to review. The problem is that in this 91-page book, the author sets forth a single historical and predictive hypothesis. In its broad strokes, the 17.6-year historical hypothesis is not new,… Read more »

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From Traders Day Trading:

With stock markets around the world at or near all time highs it is tempting to think that we are in a new stocks bull market. But was 2009 the start of a new secular stocks bull market? Are we really about to say goodbye to Dow 14,000 forever? How can we tell? These are… Read more »

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From CNBC Europe:

A long term bear market is around the corner and will last until 2018, with the Dow losing up to 30 percent of its current value, Kerry Balenthiran, author of “The 17.6 Years Stock Market Cycle”, told CNBC. “My research identified long term 17.6 year secular bull and bear markets. We’re in a long term… Read more »

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From Investors Chronicle:

Equities have been in a long-term bear market since 2000. Long periods of equity underperformance like this have happened regularly in the past – much more regularly than most might imagine. In this very insightful interview, leading cycles expert Kerry Balenthiran explains when the current slump will finally end – and highlights some key buying… Read more »

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Contents

Introduction

1. Commodity Cycles
2. Business Cycles - A Historical Perspective
3. Business Cycles - A Modern Psychological Perspective
4. Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
Part I: Bull Market 1982 to 2000
Part II: Bear Market 1929 to 1947
Part III: Bull Market 1947 to 1965 and Bear Market 1965 to 1982
Part V: Bear Market 2000 to 2018
5. How to Trade the Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
6. Conclusion

Appendices
How I Discovered the 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
Bibliography
Index



Published: 11/03/2013
Edition: 1st
Pages: 156
Formats: paperback - ISBN 9780857192738
ebook - ISBN 9780857193094
Media enquiries

If you’d like to get in touch with the author for interview or comment, or you’d like a review copy of this book, please contact us at pr@harriman-house.com or call +44 (0)1730 233870.

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