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Why indexing will fail investors in the coming dismal decade for stocks

Indeed, passive, indexed investing will at best deliver 0%-5% annually (inflation-adjusted) over the next few decades. Returns for the U.S. are at the lowest end of that forecast range, partly because U.S. equities are so richly valued at present, and partly because the wealth-to-GDP ratio is more out of sync in the U.S. than it is anywhere else. Accordingly, my 10-year return target for U.S. stocks is negative 5% to 0% annualized, after inflation.

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