How to find a winning edge in a surprising world

By Daniel Rasmussen

Why just be contrarian when you can bet against consensus and be right? Through a meta-analysis of what moves markets and what drives human behavior, New York Times bestselling author and founder of Verdad Advisers, Daniel Rasmussen cuts through the 60/40 portfolio, exposing where empirical evidence shows the best opportunities—and where projections, models, and experts often fail—to create an asset allocation that can withstand the tests of time. In this exploration of intellectual truths in investing, Dan’s research shows that the investor’s edge lies in fundamentals over forecasts, humility over hubris, and demonstrated rules over dogma.

Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and portfolio manager of Verdad Advisers, a ~$900M hedge fund. Before starting Verdad, Dan worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. He is a member of the investment committee of the Trustees of Donations of the Episcopal Church, is the New York Times bestselling author of American Uprising: The Untold Story of America’s Largest Slave Revolt, and in 2017, was named to the Forbes 30 under 30 list. Dan is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal and his investment research has been featured in multiple volumes of The Best Investment Writing. Dan earned an AB from Harvard College summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.