The lessons of history, by Dominic Picarda

“In similar vein to George Blakey’s history, but with a rather more specific angle, Russell Napier has chronicled the events and conditions at the troughs of four major bear markets on Wall Street. His purpose is simple: to identify the signals tha tell us when things are bottoming out. It’s a notable quest, as private investors often fail to spot these clues and usually miss out on at least theearly phases of bull markets.

Given that the episodes that Mr Napier examines are spaced over 61 years, it’s worth asking whether these are likely to be common characteristics on display. The author is sensitive to this issue and consequently goes beyond merely describing the events around these four major bottoms. He looks at various quantitative features – such as valuation metrics – as well as using industry and inter-market analysis. With a new bear market possibly under way, the lessons of this book should be of interest to the far-sighted investor.”